AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are currently 7 to 8 cents in the red on Tuesday morning. They fell 5 to 6 cents in the front months on Monday. December posted a new life of contract low at $3.68 overnight. Heavy rains pushed through parts of the Western Corn Belt on Monday and overnight. Monday afternoon’s crop progress report showed Corn emergence currently sitting at 98%, ahead of the average of 97%. Conditions were 1% higher on gd/ex ratings at 78%, better than most expectations. The Brugler500 index was up 2 points at 392. This morning’s Export Inspections report indicated that 1.669 MMT of corn was shipped in the week that ended on June 14. That was 18.31% larger than the week prior and 36.74% more than the same week in 2017. Inspections YTD are now within 8.53% of a year ago, slowly gaining over the past several weeks.

Soybeans

Soybean futures are trading 20 to 23 cents lower at the moment. They closed 1 to 3 cents higher in the nearby contracts on Monday. Front Month soy meal was down $3.40/ton, with soy oil up 7 points. Later in the day on Monday, President Trump threatened to add an additional 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods in response to China's retaliatory tariffs on Friday. Export inspections in the week that ended 6/14 were reported at 818,396 MT by the USDA this morning. That is 21.13% larger than the previous week and more than 180% above the same time last year. Total shipments YTD are 7% behind this time a year ago at 48.307 MMT (1.775 bbu). Soybean planting progress was reported at 97% complete, with emergence at 90%, both well ahead of normal pace. Condition ratings were down 1% to 73% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index 1 point lower at 382.

Wheat

Wheat futures are 8 to 10 cents lower in KC and CBT, with MPLS down 1-3 cents. They saw losses of 7 to 9 cents in the MPLS contracts on Monday. CBT was down 9 to 12 cents, with KC hit the hardest, 19 to 20 1/4 cents lower. Inspections of all wheat for export in the week that ended on June 14 were tallied at 372,843 MT by the USDA Monday morning. That is just half of what was reported for the same week last year and a drop of 11.15% from the week prior. Total inspections in the first 2 weeks of the 18/19 MY are down 51.35% from the same time in the 17/18 MY. The winter wheat harvest is moving right along, reported at 27% complete as of Sunday vs. the average at 19%. NASS tallied condition ratings 1% higher at 39% gd/ex, pushing the Brugler500 index up 4 points to 300. Spring wheat was reported at 9% headed, with the normal average at 12%. Conditions improved 8% to 78% gd/ex, adding 13 points from last week’s Brugler500 to 388.

Cattle

Live cattle futures ended Monday down 15 cents in the front month, with deferred contracts mixed. Feeder cattle futures were 77.5 cents to a dollar higher. The CME feeder cattle index was at $141.28 on June 15, up 55 cents from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Monday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 88 cents to $220.71, with Select boxes $1.47 higher at $204.20. The Ch/Se spread narrowed to $16.51. The USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 118,000 head on Monday. That is even with last week and 3,000 head above last year.

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures settled with 65 cent to $2 gains on Monday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up another $1.35 to $81.44 on June 14. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was reported at $84.41 in the Monday PM report, up 32 cents. The loin and ham primal cuts were the only reported lower. The national base carcass price was down 17 cents on Monday afternoon, averaging $82.80. Monday’s estimated FI hog slaughter was shown at 415,000 head. That was well below last week’s 446,000 head and down 12,000 head from a year ago.

Cotton

Cotton futures are down another 224 to 320 points on Tuesday Morning. This comes after posting another round of sharp losses on Monday, down 208 to 340 points. President Trump added fuel to the tit for tat trade war by indicating he is thinking about another 10% tariff on $200 billion of Chinese goods. This is in response to China's retaliatory tariffs on Friday. Trade issues and Specs taking profits added to the selling pressure. Monday afternoon’s NASS Crop Progress report showed 22% of the US cotton crop was squared as of Sunday, vs. the average at 17%. Conditions were down 4% to 38% gd/ex. The Brugler500 was down another 10 to 312 points. The Cotlook A index was UNCH from day prior at 101.45 cents/lb on June 15. The weekly AWP was updated to 82.99 cents/lb for this week, good through Thursday.


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