AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are currently steady to fractionally higher on Monday. The Monday morning Export Inspections report indicated corn exports in the week of 7/12 were 1.217 MMT. That was down 17% from the prior week, but 8.41% larger than the same week in 2017. YTD shipments are just 4.73% behind the same time last year, with just over a month and a half left in the MY. Friday’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report indicated that the spec managed money net short position grew by 33,566 contracts. In the week that ended July 10, their net position in corn futures and options was -104,376 contracts.

Sep 18 Corn is at $3.41 1/4, unch,

Dec 18 Corn is at $3.55 1/4, up 1/2 cent,

Mar 19 Corn is at $3.67, up 1/2 cent

May 19 Corn is at $3.73 3/4, up 1/2 cent

Soybeans

Soybean futures are trading 13 to 15 cents higher in most contracts at midday, with help coming from short covering. Nearby soy meal is up $5.60/ton, with soy oil down 22 cents. Export Inspections for soybeans were shown at 635,429 MT for the reporting week that ended last Thursday. That was down 4.88% from the week prior, but more than double the same week last year. Of that total, 54,998 MT was headed for China. This morning’s NOPA report indicated that their members crushed 159.228 mbu of soybeans during June. That was just under expectations and down from May, but still a record for the month. NOPA member soy oil stocks were below trade estimates at 1.766 billion pounds.

Aug 18 Soybeans are at $8.32 1/4, up 13 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans are at $8.38 1/2, up 14 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans are at $8.49, up 14 3/4 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans are at $8.59, up 14 3/4 cents,

Aug 18 Soybean Meal is at $331.60, up $5.60

Aug 18 Soybean Oil is at $27.75, down $0.22

Wheat

Wheat futures are currently 2 to 4 cents lower in the MPLS contracts, with KC and CBT 6 to 8 cents in the red. Pressure is coming from higher than expected yields in some HRW areas and rains forecast for the Northern Plains in the 5-day QPF. Export inspections of all wheat during the week of July 12 were reported at 469,529 MT by the USDA this morning. That was a jump of 75.05% from the previous week but still 21.05% lower than the same week in 2017. In their recent tender, the Saudi Arabia Grains Organization purchased 625,000 MT of optional origin wheat for Sep/Oct delivery.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat is at $4.90 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat is at $4.84 1/4, down 7 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat is at $5.28 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures are mostly 70 cents to $1.70 higher at midday, with nearby Aug up $2.75. Feeder cattle futures are 75 cents to $2.05 in the green on Monday. The CME feeder cattle index was up $1 from the previous day at $148.16 on 7/12. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Monday morning. Choice boxes were down 30 cents to $203.84, while Select boxes were 77 cents higher at $197.14. The Choice/Select spread has narrowed to $6.70. Weekly FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 650,000 head, up 26,000 from the same week last year. Cash trades of $110-111 were reported late on Friday afternoon.

Aug 18 Cattle are at $107.300, up $2.750,

Oct 18 Cattle are at $109.075, up $1.700,

Dec 18 Cattle are at $112.950, up $1.550,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle are at $152.550, up $1.825

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle are at $152.475, up $1.400

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle are at $152.500, up $1.150

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are steady to 90 cents lower on Monday. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 35 cents on July 12, to $80.91. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down 8 cents on Monday morning at $83.74. The belly was down $1.03, with the loin $1.93 lower and all other primals reported higher. The national base carcass price was not reported on Monday morning due to confidentiality reasons, with the 5 day rolling average at $75.71. USDA estimated weekly FI hog slaughter at 2.285 million head including Saturday, 88,000 head above last year.

Jul 18 Hogs are at $79.750, down $0.200,

Aug 18 Hogs are at $70.150, unch,

Oct 18 Hogs are at $54.425, down $0.875

Cotton

Cotton futures are currently 19 to 36 points lower at midday. Crude oil is down a sharp $2.97 at the moment, putting a little pressure on cotton at midday. The Cotlook A index was up 2 cents from the previous week to 98.45 cents/lb on July 13. The weekly USDA AWP was updated to 76.17 cents/lb through next Thursday, up 1.58 cents from the week prior. Speculators in cotton futures and options added 1,975 contracts to their CFTC net long position as of Tuesday to a net position of 77,274 contracts.

Oct 18 Cotton is at 88.68, down 22 points,

Dec 18 Cotton is at 87.62, down 22 points

Mar 19 Cotton is at 87.43, down 19 points

May 19 Cotton is at 87.410, down 36 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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